METHOD OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF POPULATION DENSITY AS A FACTOR IN PLANNING RENOVATION AND RECONSTRUCTION OF HOUSING IN GIS

Abstract

This article presents a method of spatial analysis of population density as a factor in planning the renovation and reconstruction of residential buildings in GIS. The study identifies inefficiencies in the current approaches used in Kazakhstan for assessing and planning the demolition of dilapidated housing, caused by the lack of integrated multi-criteria analysis. Based on data from Astana city for the period of 2003–2023, a new methodological approach is proposed, employing ArcGIS software for modeling and representation of population density. The developed model consists of eight operations, ranging from the selection of residential buildings (polygon areas between 50 and 10,000 sq.m) to the creation of raster maps of population density using the Kernel Density tool. Population forecasts for 2024–2029 indicate growth from 1,425,740 to 1,852,552 people, with housing construction volumes increasing from 2.85 to 3.31 million sq.m. Based on this data, a forecasted population density map was created, highlighting high-density zones such as the Baikonur district. The results show significant changes in population density in the city's central areas, which should be considered when planning renovations. The model’s advantage lies in its ability to integrate population and housing data with spatial building characteristics. At the same time, its accuracy can be enhanced by adding data on building heights and the actual number of residents. The proposed methodological approach can be applied to urban renovation planning in other cities experiencing rapid urbanization and a shortage of modern housing.